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Are interest rates really heading higher?

By | Insights
While most investors are pre-occupied with when interest rates are going to be adjusted higher, particularly in the wake of much stronger-than-expected US consumer price inflation (CPI) data and rising...
While most investors are pre-occupied with when interest rates are going to be adjusted higher, particularly in the wake of much stronger-than-expected US consumer price inflation (CPI) data and rising inflation expectations domestically, this is largely yesterday’s story. A far more important question is how likely is it that investors might witness first steps towards more support rather than a tightening of economic conditions sometime over the next twelve months? First, if you look at the latest US CPI data (4.2% annualised) it is not indicative of broad-based inflationary pressures. As highlighted by the Macquarie US economist, price rises were... Read more

Government clutching at straws on housing

By | Insights
In a rather predictable statement last week, the Reserve Bank reiterated their commitment to keeping interest rates low for an extended period, and that any short-term inflationary pressures are just...
In a rather predictable statement last week, the Reserve Bank reiterated their commitment to keeping interest rates low for an extended period, and that any short-term inflationary pressures are just that, short term and temporary. This messaging has clearly rattled some in central government. Housing affordability continues to be the thorn in this governments side. The latest REINZ house price index had prices up 19.2% year on year which clearly feels like an unsustainable level of house price growth. Whilst this is expected to moderate as the impact of lower interest rates reduce and the reintroduction of LVR restrictions take... Read more

Is reflation just a matter of time?

By | Insights
Over the last six months, investors have become more amenable to inflationary arguments or what is being referred to as the reflation trade. This in essence is the growing belief...
Over the last six months, investors have become more amenable to inflationary arguments or what is being referred to as the reflation trade. This in essence is the growing belief that short term interest rates are unlikely to go lower from current settings; and these enormous fiscal measures being implemented across the globe will finally result in wage cost pressures as one measure; and catapult us out of an environment of persistently low inflation that we have been in mired in for the past decade. Now we could have a whole other argument on how inflation is being measured; and... Read more

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