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Articles

Is the NZ market a pre-cursor for global markets?

By | Insights
For the best part of a decade, New Zealand has been one of the strongest performing equity markets on the globe. Whilst there are many factors that have supported this...
For the best part of a decade, New Zealand has been one of the strongest performing equity markets on the globe. Whilst there are many factors that have supported this strength; an emerging capital markets, a commodity super cycle, relative political stability, foreign capital investment and positive net migration to name a few. However, this local equity market strength appears to have halted in 2021. For the twelve months ending 31st October 2021, the NZX50 Gross index had returned 8.4%. Now this appears a more than adequate return. However, if we look across the Tasman, the ASX200 has returned 28.00%... Read more

First Reflation, now Stagflation, the cost of Covid 19

By | Insights
Whilst we continue to try and assess the ongoing social and economic costs of this pandemic, inflation has become a key concern for financial markets as it broadens while growth...
Whilst we continue to try and assess the ongoing social and economic costs of this pandemic, inflation has become a key concern for financial markets as it broadens while growth recedes. This unusual mix is in part driven by a lowering of economic support and lack of supply normalization, as the world grapples with differing re-opening strategies and trade channels remain logjammed. Over the past 3-4 months, investors have witnessed a significant acceleration of inflation that is steadily broadening and running ahead of expectations. At the same time, as the initial sugar rush subsided, economic indicators globally are surprising in... Read more

Why long-term interest rates are more likely to fall.

By | Insights
While investors are currently preoccupied with shorter-term questions of higher interest rates, inflation and tightening economic conditions, the reality is interest rates have been on a consistently declining path for...
While investors are currently preoccupied with shorter-term questions of higher interest rates, inflation and tightening economic conditions, the reality is interest rates have been on a consistently declining path for the last three decades and those forces responsible for this phenomenon remain relevant and in some cases are likely to strengthen. What are some of these forces? The increase in size and influence of governments and central banks (financialization) is highly disinflationary and no longer reversable. Central banks decision to manage through crises, with as little damage as possible to financial assets (2001, 2008, 2020) by pumping in liquidity and... Read more

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